Freitag, 21. November 2008

Financial Crisis and its ramifications...

In "Blue & Gray", the biweekly official Georgetown gazette for faculty and staff (there is btw also "the Hoya", published by the students), of Nov 17th, 2008, there was a brief article about Georgetown's endowment.
Apparently, the fund's volume dropped below 1bn $. It lost 9.5% of its value in Q3 2008 and overall 12.5% in 2008YTD.
Tough times ... however, the author of the article points out that Morgan Stanley's MSCI (global equity index) lost 26 (same time frame may mean 2008YTD, I guess). Anyhow, compared to Yale's or Harvard's endowment, Georgetown's is pretty small....

Another hot issue this week was (and still is) the possible 25bn $ loan for Detroit's Big Three (GM, Ford, Chrysler). However, it is highly unclear whether there will be money, how much, for which purposes and with which strings/conditions attached. There is no clarity whatsoever about the automakers' current financial health: will the go bankrupt withouth the federal money injection? If so, when (end of the year, in some months, never)?
Even if the money would help (how to spend it most efficiently, given the complexities and sizes of those firms?), is there enough oversight to avoid just preserving outdated plants/management styles/ill-fated worker benefit programs etc.?
It seems that noone wants a breakdown of the US auto industry, but can a gov't bailout help? on the other hand, if there is no help, what if all three go bust and some 4-5m jobs are lost in the aftermath?

We might assume that Congress, after playing hardball tactics to get more facts and clearer conditions on the package, finally grants money for the carmakers. Let's hope that it really helps to change the industry. The US auto industry urgently need a DRASTIC change (with or without public money), so let's just hope pouring money over it won't help them avoid changes and make them look forward (energy challenge, fuel efficiency, environmental standards, design revolution, sizes & tastes) and not backward (outrageous health care and pension packages).

Mitt Romney is apparently an outspoken critic (cf. "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt", NY Times, Wednesday, November 19, 2008, page A31): "with it [governmetn money], the automakers will stay the course - the suicidal course of declining market share, insurmountable labor and retiree burdens, technology atrophy, product inferiority and never-ending job losses. Detroit needs a turnaround, not a check."

On the other hand: how can you explain in simple terms why to bail out a financial system with 700bn, while being stingy about 25bn for cars and 4m jobs? Most people possibly don't easily understand stability and systemic issues and rather care more about their job. In any case, policymakers face a huge challenge to restore confidence: in the system, in the individual's power to keep on fighting for him/herself, in America, and, in politics.

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