Banking, Switzerland, Risk Management and the Ability to Change

Unfortunately, Switzerland is again in the news, ahem ... in the bad news. After the Nazi gold debate of the 1990, the country faces since 2007 increased scrutiny surrounding the buzz words "tax haven" and once more the Swiss Banking Secrecy is at the top of the controversial topics.

While Germany attacked Liechtenstein extremly rude in early 2008 regarding its Trust legislation (possibly enabling many Germans to hide their wealth from the German fiscal authorities) and later on also Switzerland, the case UBS has been in the news ever since then. Some bank seniors have been pursued in actively helping Americans hiding their money from the IRS with fancy methods. Now the IRS wants to see 52'000 accounts and names of potential Americans that have deposits at UBS. This of course would violate the Swiss Banking Law and its secrecy article which forbids governments (also the Swiss one) to have access to account information.

The banking secrecy - whatever some conspiracy theorists and pessimists may believe - has a long tradition and was never intended to protect dictators, terror financiers and rogue people.
The banking secrecy is fundamentally an expression of a very liberal, libertarian principle, i.e. constrain the size of government and thus protect privacy of individuals. The state should not have the capacity to raid people's savings and expropriate their wealth. Thus, the law intends to protect privacy and people's (property) rights. This only seemingly contradicts taxation requirements and law enforcement.
Over the years, Swiss legislation and banks have developed sophisticated tools to make sure that people's wealth is subject to taxes, i.e. it cannot simply disappear and become grey. With a withholding or sourcing tax of 35% on interest earnings, it incentivizes people to declare their proper wealth on their tax forms. Moreover, the banking commission has set standards against money laundering and banks try to track down financial flows of potentially illegal activities. I don't say this is done in a perfect and watertight fashion. As some notorious examples in the past have shown, it is and will probably always be possible to hide money. Even with the most advanced tools and technological background it may not be possible to clean up perfectly.

Instead of further developing and fine-tuning this banking system that both protects privacy but allows to prevent and track money laundering, the current fuzz may submit a potentially devastating blow to it.
Even though it is not clear how the causa UBS and USA will end, it may well have adverse effects on how (Western) banks cooperate, comply with the law and how they try out of self-interest to reduce illegal activities. Given that international finance is so vast, fluid, fast and dynamic, one should be careful in assuming that with a swift action e.g. by the OECD, the US or the Germans (even the British have some special interests, some say, to further boost their financial center) the problem is solved.

If the last two years of international pressure, Swiss banking activities and the actions of the Swiss government have taught us, then it is the inadequate (again) response of Swiss institutions to crises and international pressure. It is striking how fast the government, banks and other institutions have partially reigned in to the pressure, partially fell into the old habit of resisting as if nothing has happened in the belief that staying ignorant would be the best strategy for survival. The response was chaotic, and seems to show a lack of a risk management concept.

Despite calls to build up a strategic framework to strengthen its voice abroad, improve understanding abroad and coordinate policies at home, not enough was done in advance. Given the complicated political system in Switzerland, it may also be very likely that it stays this way: a few crises here and there, a few critics here and there, but overall the self-righteous conviction that everything still is ok, and we're fine.
Switzerland lost its once leading positions in research, education, its competitiveness is limited to a few industries, while many economic sectors are protected and isolated. And many do not seem to see the huge challenges laying ahead.
Is this country able to change?






Source:
http://www.nzz.ch/nachrichten/wirtschaft/aktuell/die_wut_der_alten_kmpen_1.3181743.html

Congratulations from the Mainland to the Island! WOW!

What a move! Mr. Hu congratulates Mr. Ma to his non-contested election as Kuomintang chairman. How cool that this happens just at the right time to have some teasers for the beginning of the US-China Strategic & Economic Dialogue that started today, July 27, 2009, in Washington DC. This was also the reason why I could not take the tunnel under 14th street from the Reagan Building to the Hoover Building (Commerce Dept).

The election could reinforce Ma's consiliatory approach to the PRC within the KMT. Additionally, many in the PRC assume that - since PRC does not accept Ma's title as president of Taiwan - that only this election to party chairman allows him the posture to get invited to the mainland. However, a re-approchement takes time and probably both sides are not yet ready for too much schmoozing. For this, there is not enough trust, and too much fear on the island.
Maybe, a real trust building measure would not just be a telegram from Beijing, but the (partial) scrapping or reduction of its missiles targetting Formosa?

At least: nice words are better than the ugly words a few years back!



http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/28/world/asia/28taiwan.html?ref=world

Hand In Hand

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8s0sLRJ_uic&NR=1
hand in hand - coming soon?
if you have a dynasty and hereditary leadership succession, you may be able to exploit one advantage: that the son can learn from the mistake of his father. well, he can also exacerbate them, but maybe that's what the current guy did ... does the new offspring go in the other direction, if he indeed is to come?
at least, it will take him a bit more than just 'breaking down the wall', but also clearing a mine field and providing some opportunities for his people to survive.

Working in the Federal Triangle

Room 4001, 4th floor, Herbert C Hoover Building, Department of Commerce, view south to National Mall, visible is the Holocause Museum (center, behind building), the Jefferson Memorial (upper right, white dome) and the Department of Agriculture (upper left).

Preserving a Dinosaur? (Almost) Everything Subsidies Make Possible...

Do you know CAP? It's not a baseball cap, but the Common Agricultural Policy, with about 71bn $ (50bn Euro) the largest agricultural subsidy program on earth (according to the New York Times, cf. link below), run by the EU. Some say it is also the biggest cRap on earth... which led then to slogans demanding to scrap it (Adam Smith Institute, LYMEC, cf. links below).

Notorious for its loopholes and its benefits not just to farmers, but also to nobilities, pharma companies, large dairy producers, sugar processors, gummy bear (candy) producers etc...
The OECD complains about leakages to unintended beneficiaries, while farmers (the main beneficiaries) complain about being neglected, but the European Commission may defend the CAP as boosting "rural development". Throughout history, there have been many, and vastly different approaches to explain and support the CAP. Most of them, however, do (in)directly rather protect and support industries, instead of pushing for innovation and "development".
Worse off are consumer in Europe, who have to pay more for some basic food stuff than in other parts of the world. Import tariffs as well as domestic production/development support are just two of the channels that make developing countries worse off, as they cannot compete and lack sufficient market access to the Western agricultural produce markets. In return, some Western states still provide food aid to developing countries that provide disincentives for them to develop their agriculture, and thus keep them underdeveloped...


http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/17/business/global/17farms.html?ref=global-home

http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/international/time-to-scrap-the-cap-200805111351/

http://www.lymec.org/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=613

Cars from the West ... and from the East

Since blogger.com seems to be blocked in China, there was no posting for the last two months by this humble narrator. Looking back, the summer exchange program at 复旦大学(Fudan University) in 上海 (Shanghai) was inspiring. However, as one might expect, being abroad bears some pleasant and sometimes also some unpleasant experiences.

Maybe this picture set may express some features of such experiences:

Pictures shows "Chinese launched the Geely GE, a copycat car, including a winged mascot and huge radiator grill, for just £30,000..."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/picturegalleries/5208546/Chinas-copycars-familiar-looking-vehicles-at-Shanghai-Auto-2009.html